LIVE PILOTreal engine answers · small pilot wave · wide intervals by designSynthetic probes · not real user sessions · this wave 100% L3 · answers L1 eliciteden-US · luce-live-w28

category

Running shoes

Luce asked ChatGPT, Gemini and Perplexity the same 30 unbranded shopper questions about running shoes, and they do not agree on who to recommend: ChatGPT ties asics and hoka, Gemini leads with brooks, Perplexity leads with asics.

Road running shoes across daily trainers and race day.

Engines3
Brands8
Prompts per cell30
01

Every brand, every engine

Read across a row to see where the engines disagree.

estimand: probe-design mention rate over Luce grammar v0.1-pilot, rank-range leagues only; not demand-weighted

Gold marks the top rate on that engine, and every brand tied with it. Grey marks a brand measured too imprecisely to rank this wave. The bar under each rate is its 95% interval.

One column per engine, never combined. Rows ordered by ChatGPT.
BrandChatGPTmention rate · 95% CIGeminimention rate · 95% CIPerplexitymention rate · 95% CI
asics80%63-9380%67-9380%67-93
hoka80%67-9377%63-9070%53-87
brooks73%57-8787%73-9770%53-87
new-balance60%43-7777%60-9063%47-80
nike57%40-7367%50-8370%53-87
saucony53%33-7077%60-9057%40-73
adidas30%13-4760%43-7757%40-73
on7%0-1737%20-5313%3-27
02

Photo finish

How likely each brand is to actually hold the top spot.

estimand: probe-design leader credible-set read over Luce grammar v0.1-pilot; not demand-weighted

ChatGPT

Running shoes · 95% credible set: hoka, asics, brooks
contested · no likely favorite
  1. hoka49% ±1.1
  2. asics46% ±1.1
  3. brooks4% ±0.5
5 more brands in this cell hold under a one percent chance of the top spot.

Gemini

Running shoes · 95% credible set: brooks, asics, saucony, hoka, new-balance
contested · no likely favorite
  1. brooks64% ±1.1
  2. asics16% ±0.8
  3. saucony7% ±0.6
  4. hoka7% ±0.6
  5. new-balance6% ±0.5
3 more brands in this cell hold under a one percent chance of the top spot.

Perplexity

Running shoes · 95% credible set: asics, nike, hoka, brooks
contested · no likely favorite
  1. asics65% ±1.1
  2. nike13% ±0.7
  3. hoka11% ±0.7
  4. brooks9% ±0.6
  5. new-balance2% ±0.3
3 more brands in this cell hold under a one percent chance of the top spot.